Friday, February 6, 2009

Leveraged Debt

By Dewey Finn

In most articles and advertisements addressing debt the thrust of the pitch is to get out of debt. In a case where companies get into financial trouble, they restructure their debt. In both cases there is a core problem that needs to be identified.

When you borrow your goal should be to save money in the long run. You can even use an 18% credit card and have it save you money. You do this by going to a sale and save 30, 40 or 50 percent off of the regular price. First make sure that this is a real sale with real savings. You buy the item on your credit card. Then you pay it off as quickly as possible. If you pay if off in a year, you can still net a saving of 12, 22 or 32 percent.

The problem is that too many people do not have a Debt management plan to pay off the debt. It stays on their card for 3 to 5 years or until they are overwhelmed with debt. The solution is that you have to have a realistic plan to pay off debt in a manner so that there is still a net savings. Then you have to execute that plan as in pay off that debt in the time frame that you planned. Part of that plan should be to not take on any more debt until the first debt is retired.

It is not a matter that you have to be debt free. It is that you have to use debt to save money. Being debt free is a nice goal. It is simple and it ultimately saves you money. There is nothing wrong with keeping things simple.

However, you do miss the benefits of the number one tool of good debt and that is leverage. The best way to illustrate leverage is a discussion of home ownership financing. If you are going conventional on a $200,000 property, you need to put 25% down or $50,000. While this article is being written, real estate markets have been hot, so let's say this property will increase in value by 10% this year. That is $20,000 which gives you a 40% return on your original investment of $50,000. In year 2, compounding will start to take effect. Let's assume the market goes up another 10% year over year. That means that there will be a $22,000 increase in the value of the house. That calculates to a 44% return on the original $50,000 investment and an 84% return over 2 years. You would have to pay rent anyway so cash cost to you is minimalized.

This can be applied to other investment tools. Leverage is especially good for government subsidized programs such as retirement savings. You get not only a compounding return on your investment ( 5 to 10 percent) but you get a kick start with the tax avoided by investing in these programs (10 to 40 percent or more) . You pay off your loan within one year and you can do it again the next year for more tax savings. In the first year you can get anywhere from a 15 to 50 percent return. You get your best borrowing rates for this kind of investment so your net gain will still be 10 to 45 percent. In most cases the interest is also in a tax protected (deferred) environment.

The interesting thing about these high returns on investment is that they are in areas that are considered safe havens for your money. These are assets that contribute to your net worth and can be used as collateral for other wise borrowing. By having these assets you add to your savings because lenders will now compete to give you their absolute best rates.

That does not mean that this is a slam dunk. Real estate markets, stock markets and money markets have periods where they lose value. In the long term they will inevitably recover. The problem is that you will still have to make the payments on the money you have borrowed. This may be hard to do because when the markets go down, usually personal incomes go down as well. Jobs are hard to find. There are downsizings and layoffs. You will either have to sell off some assets at the lower price to reduce you outflow of cash or still generate enough income to make your payments. That will make selling assets to compensate for lost income even harder because buyers will be scarce and they will want a bargain.

To protect your leveraged investments from this short term danger, the solution is to have some cash reserves. Your retirement savings are not just for retirement but they are for the "rainy days". Most responsible lenders encourage you to have at least 25% equity in your home. This is not just to protect them. It is to protect you from a downturn in the economy. To do that you must not over commit your cash flow. Leave some fudge factor in your budget for the challenges that you may not see coming. Personal illness and family tragedies can be overwhelming if you already have your budget at or over its limit.

Even the powerful tool of leverage has its limitations. Good debt can turn into bad debt if it is oversubscribed. If you manage it wisely, you will rise from the ashes of a downturn or recession like a Phoenix.

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