Saturday, January 24, 2009

Predicting the Forex Market, a Myth?

By Karielle Samstad

Since I started trading, I have met a number of experts who teach courses and give seminars somehow giving the hint of having certain power or gift to predict the forex market. I have used most of their techniques in order to predict how the market will behave and make a profit from my decisions.

Let me tell you, I had many disappointments.

Market trends, charts, Fibonacci methods, Elliott Wave methods, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, you name it, none of them gave me an accurate and precise prediction of how the forex market was going to behave. Most of the time I was "too early" or "too late" in my moves.

Those experiences taught me a priceless lesson: there is no way to predict the market, but there are many ways to trade the market.

And to make money you have to trade the market correctly, not to predict the market correctly.

There are a number of elements that must be used when trading, but the most important one is to be serene and in control of the emotions. Forget anxiety. Forget fear. Forget greed. None of those things will help you make money. The less in control of those emotions and feelings you are, the more money you lose. And that is a fact.

Once your mind and your heart are in place, the next thing to control is your money. It is very important to have a good money management strategy in place before doing any trading. This way you decide exactly how far you want to go, in amount of money and in amount of risk.

That is the next thing you must control: your risk. Choose your battles and know exactly what you are getting into. It is your responsibility to deal with the consequences of your decisions, either big profits or big losses. Being in control of your risks gives you confidence and great possibilities of making money.

In other words, you can have the best tools on Earth to trade currencies, but if you do not have a good money management and risk strategy and control of your emotions and feelings, you are most likely to lose money.

The currency trading market is unpredictable, but trading it is a science and an art at the same time.

Play the market to win, controlling first your emotions and then your strategy. And then? Just go with the flow.

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